A) Some, so called “Wall Street insiders” defend that Bitcoin ETF would not be approved before 2019.
B) While institutional investors are certainly getting involved in bitcoin, the vast majority of the firms are looking to make markets regardless of price: they’re just as happy to take on short positions as they are to go long. Institutions who are known to be long-biased, such as mutual funds and pension funds are not ready to invest because they’re not yet comfortable with the available custody solutions.
C) There’s also the NVM Ratio, which is designed to reflect early stage adoption, now suggesting that there’s now too little on-chain activity to justify bitcoin’s current market cap, because it doesn’t take into account transaction amounts nor the difference between old an new addresses, it doesn’t discount spam attacks, it doesn’t acknowledge limitations to the block size and neither does it consider institutions coming into the market who build derivatives on bitcoin that rely on a small amount of high-value cold storage addresses.
D) Possible Short Term Bear Market ! Bitcoin mining hashrate (aggregate computations per second made to secure the network ) has tripled, which means that a huge amount of new or more efficient mining rigs have come online.
In combination with declining prices, this means that miners who weren’t able to upgrade their machines or find cheaper electricity have been faced with a steep decline in profitability, a 90% drop in 7 months (altcoins have faced similar or steeper declines).
With profit margins under heavy pressure, it is possible that miners could start selling a significant amount of cryptocurrency and be responsible for a short term Bear Market.
E) A Gallup poll conducted three months ago suggested that less than 0.5% of U.S. investors “will probably buy bitcoin in the near future.”
Recent results of a Wells Fargo/Gallup poll revealed that while only a small percentage of Americans are currently invested in Bitcoin, over a quarter of investors are intrigued by the cryptocurrency. The study’s published results found that 2 percent of U.S. investors polled reported owning BTC, while 26 percent said they were ‘intrigued’ by the prospect of investing in the high profile cryptocurrency. In addition, three in four investors who had heard of Bitcoin reported it to be “very risky” as a source of investment, reflecting the typical sentiment of general media outlets that focus on the price volatility of the currency.
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- F) Despite transaction fees and volatility having dropped strongly, merchants are seeing +50% lower bitcoin revenues compared to last fall.
- G) Google searches are not suggestive of a quick retail fueled recovery.
- A) Coinbase’s latest announcement: WooCommerce plugin that makes it quick and easy to accept bitcoin and litecoin as payment methods on any WooCommerce-powered site.
WordPress-powered WooCommerce is one of the most popular e-commerce platforms on the world web, and Coinbase claims that it is integrated with over 28 percent of all online stores all over the world. The plugin allows its users to transfer bitcoin and litecoin directly from Coinbase Commerce with an easy-to-use payment button. So, imagine that on a global market scope.
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- B) BTC/USD is already down: 62 percent since December 2017.
- C) After USA sanctions started by Trump, Chinese Yuan has dropped by 8 percent against the dollar; if that continues, Chinese capital could keep escaping to cryptocurrency.
- D) Bitcoin dominance is gaining ground, which indicates a slow down on market realization, because many can already see the great usage of cryptocurrency ecosystem, but see Bitcoin as the safest coin, which is the only one they would risk investing considering the last 2017 bubble.
- E) Between late 2011 and April 2013, the bitcoin price multiplied by 100x, and, after a six-month correction (price down), it started another rally to 10x.
- F) Some investors could be anticipating 2020 prediction block reward halving, which will cut down bitcoin’s annual supply inflation from 3.7 percent to only 1.79 percent.
- G) A possible bitcoin ETF approval, even if delayed, would be a huge change on the market, and bitcoin would be extremely accessible for the retail investor.
- After the first gold ETF went live in 2004, the gold price rallied by 350 percent (and it’s still 200 percent higher today).
- H) As the 2017 rally went through, many companies opened their eyes, and started a corporate activity on cryptocurrency infrastructure side, after a future of cryptocurrency established banks, brokers, payment processors, and security providers.
I) Possible reversal to a Long Bull Run=> If Recent pick-up in volumes on Bitcoin are the result of a short squeeze and is really coming from new long-term buyers, this could indicates a big reversal for Cryptocurrency, which is already spotted on our Technical Analysis. That is why we need to wait for new volume increase and other buy indicators that did not happened yet.